“Not a ban, I swear”
Chinese rare earth exports, by tonnage, fell ~31% MoM in September, as Beijing’s tightening export regime began squeezing downstream supply chains.
Into that vacuum steps Canberra.
Australia pitched its vast resource holdings as the democratic world’s rare-earth insurance policy.
- The Aussies told the Americans that they hold deposits of 43 of the 55 minerals Washington designates as “critical.”
- Fact check, true. Australia is like “a periodic table that lights up like a Christmas tree.”🎄 Mining is ~15% of Australian GDP, vs. 1.3% in the U.S.
Australia’s pitch worked.
Last week, President Trump and Australia PM Anthony Albanese inked a $8.5B critical minerals pipeline pact.
- The deal commits ≥$1B from each partner over six months to jumpstart a priority project pipeline spanning mining, refining, and processing.
- Offtake agreements and strategic stockpiling mechanisms are included in the partnership, to buy down commercial risk for projects in both nations.
China’s response
Beijing expressed immediate displeasure, with state-run mouthpieces media blasting the deal as “strategic containment dressed as supply chain security,” framing it as another attempt to encircle China economically. (As a reminder, China still controls ~90% of refined rare earths, 70% of lithium, and 88% of cobalt globally.)
Now all eyes are on Australia.
The stable, resource-rich mining powerhouse is already scaling refining infrastructure that matches China in technical capability if not yet in volume. Australia’s transformation from raw-ore exporter to processing hub is a structural shift years in the making, which now has serious geopolitical momentum at its back.
Meanwhile, in Europe…
As the EU prepares its own “trade options” to counter China’s, Beijing is reportedly forcing German firms to hand over sensitive supply chain information in exchange for REE export licenses.